Russia could attack Poland during a crisis in Baltic region: US think tank

But a "modernized, ready" Polish military "backed by a more robust U.S. forward presence" could convince Russian decision-makers that Poland is not an easy target and that its forces would "pose a real challenge to a Russian invasion," the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), a Washington-based think tank that specialises in security policy, has said in a new study.

“A future, more capable Polish military backed by a more robust U.S. forward presence in Poland could also foster the confidence needed for Warsaw to support the defense of NATO member territory located beyond its borders,” says the study, entitled Strengthening the Defense of NATO’s Eastern Frontier.

"The Baltic region is ... where the [NATO] alliance is most vulnerable to Russian aggression," according to the study.

It says: "The Russian government could determine that its best option during a significant crisis in the Baltic region is to risk a conventional attack on one or more of the Baltic states or even Poland because it believes it could quickly achieve its objectives and keep the conflict short and limited."

Although there is "little evidence" to suggest that Russia actively seeks direct military confrontation with NATO states, "plausible paths to conflict exist," the CSBA think tank said in its study, which was unveiled in Washington at the end of last month.

The report added: "The Russian government prefers to achieve its revisionist goals through sub-conventional methods of conflict, including 'gray zone' activities and political warfare campaigns intended to undermine NATO’s cohesion and political will while remaining below Alliance thresholds for a conventional military response.”

Warsaw has in recent months been making intense efforts to secure a boosted American troop presence on NATO’s eastern flank.

NATO's chief on Monday confirmed plans for a USD 260 million storage site for US military equipment in Poland.

Poland last month marked two decades since it became a member of the Western military alliance.

(gs/pk)

Source: wp.pl, csbaonline.org